55% of Democratic Primary Voters Want to Replace Biden
Re: pushback on my call for Biden to step aside.
Should We Be Having This Discussion?
I received a lot of positive feedback on my suggestion that Biden step aside, but I’ve also received some spirited pushback. Given how critical this issue is, I wanted to engage the topic a bit more.
I should note that some of the emails have involved juvenile name calling, poll dismissing, implications that the media is orchestrating some sort of putsch, or just telling me to shut up and tow the line.
These responses are unserious, and make our party look unserious. They are of a kind with the behavior that pushed the Republican Party into nutso land. No thanks.
This approach will also make us much more likely to lose, because there is no likely scenario where “shut up and get in line” talk fails to turn off the currently huge mass of hesitant voters, the very people we need.
Reasons I Might Be Wrong
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t good arguments against my position.
My claim is that Joe Biden should step aside as part of an effort to beat a now-immune Donald Trump from storming into the White House armed with his fascistic Project 2025 agenda.
I see two relatively compelling rejoinders that point toward sticking with Biden. They can be summarized as follows:
Pushing Biden to drop out is unlikely to change his behavior, but it is likely to hurt his chance of winning in the fall. So the net effect of having this conversation diminishes our chance of beating Trump.
AND/ORKeeping Biden may have downsides but switching has bigger downsides. Biden’s weaknesses are baked into the polls, whereas other potential candidates’ weaknesses are not. Moreover, the process of picking the next winner could tear the party apart, weakening even a great candidate. Together this suggests even more downside impact from switching candidates; look at our failed history of attempts to do so in the past.
The Future Is Inherently Uncertain
I think the first thing it is important to note is that we are operating in a highly volatile, uncertain situation. This requires real epistemic humility. I don’t know the exact right course. But I can make an educated guess, and I believe the balance of the evidence is increasingly compelling.
Why I Don’t Believe Argument #1
I believed #1 until before the debate. But afterward, it quickly became evident that Biden was much more likely to lose than I had previously thought.
Also, since so many voters had already lost confidence in him, I became increasingly sure that a party discussion about his stepping aside was less likely to harm the ticket, because the harm with persuadable voters was already baked in.
I also started to believe for the first time there was a small but real chance he would drop out, but only if there was a broad chorus from the Democratic base. That chorus is increasingly compelling and I intend to be a part of it.
Most important, the Democratic base is not with him. Democratic primary voters want to replace Biden, by a 55% to 40% margin, with about 2/3rds preferring a competitive convention rather than a coronation for Kamala Harris. Among all Democrats, it’s about 47% to 39%.
While there are polls that don’t tell the identical story, none show truly predominant support for our current President and presumptive nominee. That is, not to be too technical, bonkers. The polls are sometimes off by a few points, but they are pretty much never off by enough to make up the difference here.
Even leading politicians, not a group known for their courage, are starting to publicly call for Biden to step aside, saying he cannot win, or diplomatically nudging him–including our Senator Patty Murray and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Seattle area Congressman Adam Smith is among those explicitly calling for Biden to step down.
Given the way these things tend to work, it is likely that countless more are pushing for this behind the scenes. Some of the top donors are also pushing for a change in the ticket. And some state party chairs are running scared and are saying they are terrified to speak out.
Many Democrats, myself included, will fight like hell to make sure Biden wins in the fall if it comes to that, but most of us, myself included, do not think Biden is the right leader to take us into the fight if we want to win. We need to try to get him to make the change.
Why I Think Argument #2 Is Wrong
Still, none of this is enough to dispel argument #2, which claims that the risks of switching away from Biden are even greater than his staying at the top of the ticket. Those risks are indeed real. This is why I wrote in my last piece:
In truth, everything about a post-Biden summer is fraught and complicated and scary. But I still think we should do it.
We do have to be clear-eyed that the starting odds don’t look great, and this may not be enough. But we have to do all we can to maximize our chances. Anti-incumbency sentiments seems to be a serious global trend right now, after years of pandemic and painful social malaise and inflationary shocks.
But I have come to believe those very real risks pale in comparison to what looks like increasingly certain defeat if Biden stays in.
This is for two reasons.
First, Biden’s electoral situation is downright dire. An AARP poll in Wisconsin, which is pretty close to a must-win state, done by a polling firm that both campaigns use, puts Biden’s approval 12 points behind Trump’s, with RFK in the race. Without RFK it’s still 5 points. Trump has a 24-point lead among independents, 32-point lead among young voters, and a 51-point lead with men. We are on our way to an electoral wipeout. When voters don’t turn out for their party’s President, that party’s down-ballot candidates end up getting trounced because their natural voters just don’t show up. Our current path thus risks turning over both houses of congress and lots of state governments.
Second, it is worth noting that Biden is running behind other Democrats. Wisconsin’s Democratic Senator is running 12 points ahead of Biden, 5 if Biden was in a head to head matchup without RFK in the picture. This suggests Biden is significantly underperforming relative to what could be achieved. Or, put more positively, an alternate candidate has serious room to grow in comparison to Biden.
This is why I believe the balance of risks means Biden needs to step down. It’s the heroic act he needs to take to secure his legacy as a true statesman who puts country first.
I understand that reasonable people can disagree, and I appreciate your well thought arguments as you share them. Feel free to continue to do so.
Hiding From the Problem Won’t Help
Either way, I certainly don’t think denialism is the answer. As local political consultant Bill Broadhead said:
The stakes are too high. We have to do better.
Fortunately, many people who have fought on behalf of progressive politics are having this discussion. In fact, I recommend, among others, this one between Biden’s former Press Secretary Jen Psaki, and former Obama speechwriter John Lovett.