Sara Nelson's Approval Craters
SURPRISE! Conservative Policy is Not Popular in Seattle
Nelson’s Nosedive
The NW Progressive Institute recently commissioned a survey by change Research and it looks pretty bad for Seattle’s conservatives.
Seattle City Council President Sara Nelson’s popularity has collapsed. According to NWPI, Nelson dropped a whopping 14 points. She went from the only city council member with a net-positive rating, to now having a net negative rating of 10 points (22% approve; 32% disapprove).
Woo’s Status and What that Means for November
Tanya Woo, who faces a challenger this Fall, is also polling pretty poorly, at a net negative of 5 points (21% approve, 26% disapprove). So when people know about Woo, they disapprove. Granted, 53% weren’t sure about their opinion of Woo, indicating that her election could still go either way.
It shouldn’t.
As I wrote in a previous post, Woo is an anti-tax conservative whose policy priorities are diametrically opposed to the Democratic Party platform. She has fought against cutting red tape for affordable housing, has fought to protect exclusive housing zones for rich people, made clear her plans to devastate basic services at the city, and has barely bothered to vote in local elections for decades.
She opposes the basic tenets of every person in this poll with a high approval rating. She should be shown the door.
Conservative Policies are Unpopular in Seattle
In any case, Nelson’s drop and Woo’s weak showing are a substantial datapoint that suggests the council is headed in an unpopular direction.
In fact, NPI also polled Seattle voters to see how they felt about Sara Nelson’s attempt to cut the minimum wage for gig workers–framing the question exactly as it was framed by the Seattle Times’ News Report. Only 18% support Nelson’s effort to cut minimum wages for delivery drivers. 60% oppose. That’s about as lopsided as a political question can get.
But Nelson has continued to press the matter, apparently undeterred in her effort to turn Seattle into a Reaganite haven. In fact, she even supported Maritza Rivera’s abortive attempt to take money away from development projects for housing, healthcare and childcare for marginalized groups.
The blowback from that was swift, broad, and fierce. Given that this poll was before Rivera’s debacle, her numbers may have nudged down even further since.
And folks–Sara is just getting started. She has telegraphed that she plans to cut around $200M in vital services from the city budget this fall. If you think roving library closures, too few cleanup crews, not enough affordable housing, or SPS’s plan to close twenty public schools sucks—buckle up for what Sara has planned!
What about the (actual) centrists?
Even the more centrist Bruce Harrell has fallen pretty far, down to about only +2% net positive (43% approve, 41% disapprove). His drop may simply signify the end of his mayoral honeymoon period, or it could portend something more serious. He’s doing twenty points worse than his King County counterpart, Dow Constantine, who is at 44% approve, 22% disapprove.
I’m sure throwing in the towel on housing and homelessness didn’t help. And this poll was taken before he fell all over himself in a press conference talking about the deposed Seattle Police Chief’s incredible integrity, despite the fact that Diaz is under investigation from allegations from several police officers involving sexual harassment, cultural sexism and racism in the department.
I suspect how he handles the coming budget fight is going to be pretty decisive when it comes to the way voters feel about him. If he is cowed by the Chamber and Nelson’s Newt Gingrich-like philosophy of government spending, that will certainly hurt him.
Takeaway
One way or another, the poll suggests the strident way that Nelson read last year’s election is far from correct. Will she respond the way she responded to expert testimony in council she didn’t like, with airpods in ear? Or will she start acting like a grownup and problem solve with her constituents?
Only time will tell.